S is for…..Statistics U.K.

19th December 2020

Lies, damn lies and statistics. So said somebody. Whoever it was, it is true. And there are liars, damn liars and politicians. That seems obvious.

But what about statistics? The first phrase was apparently popularised by Mark Twain in the United States. Benjamin Franklin wrote in a letter ‘…in this world nothing can be said to be certain, except death and taxes.’ 

So, whilst others have looked at infection rates, such as Andrew Mather to be found on YouTube, I decided that only death data would be reliable.

I consider Andrew’s work to be good and very thorough, but not simplified enough for idiots like me, even though I did statistics up to and including ‘A’ level.

His website is Peerless Reads if you want to look.

Please note my article is primarily about numbers so we can compare to other years and diseases. People are individuals, precious souls, but we must look at the overall picture to understand what is going on.

Well, using this as a basis, I set out on my journey at the beginning of lockdown. I never knew all the truth it would lead me to.

With the quotes in mind, I decided to look at and follow the Office for National Statistics (ONS) on its website. I didn’t realise how good they were, or how much information is held. All credit to those who labour away at producing such good data.

I have looked at other countries as far as possible, but I am so far of the opinion that no one else can beat ours for thoroughness. But then I am biased being British.

To start with I looked at death statistics in England and Wales. The source is Office for National Statistics (ONS) website. Quoted text in italics.

It should be noted that the ONS has, once Covid was included in the figures, said

‘A death can be registered with both COVID-19 and Influenza and Pneumonia mentioned on the death certificate. Because pneumonia may be a consequence of COVID-19, deaths where both were mentioned have been counted only in the COVID-19 category.’

This means that, whilst figures may be inflated, they will not distort the overall death curve pattern.

          1. Typical Annual deaths

‘In 2018, there were 541,589 deaths registered in England and Wales, an increase of 1.6% compared with 2017 (533,253); this is the highest annual number of deaths since 1999.’

This equates to 1,483 deaths per day and about 10,415 a week on average.

Annual deaths are rising and have done so in recent years, but go up and down somewhat, so there is no consistent pattern as such.

The following shows the annual deaths for England and Wales since 1963. I have added 2019 and my provisional assessment for final 4 weeks remaining not in ONS figures.

This shows a steep rise this year, much steeper than expected, although from a low base, a fall last year.

The following shows the annual deaths for England and Wales since 1963. I have added 2019 and my provisional assessment less about 30,000 excess deaths in care homes.

This shows a steep rise, but more consistent with what one might expect.

  2. Covid Deaths

Since week 11 when Covid deaths were recorded there have been 53,700 deaths over 32 weeks (week 11 to week 42). That equates to about 1678 per week on average.

The peak was in weeks 16 and 17 at 8,758 and 8,237 respectively, about 31% of all Covid recorded deaths to date in only 6% of the time.

47,571 deaths occurred over 11 weeks, from week 14 to 24, roughly April to middle of June inclusive. Weekly rates were over 1,000.

This is about 88% of all deaths to date, in 34% of the time.

3. Graphs

Compare these graphs. Note the shapes are similar between All Causes Deaths and Covid 19. But also note the difference. Can you see it? Look carefully.






See it? The slight fall on the left hand side of All Cause Deaths. This represents the sad loss of about 50 little ones under one year old.

Why no change in lockdown? Because they are always in lockdown, they are wrapped up cosy indoors usually, and probably short on vitamin D. This will be due primarily because they are not breast fed, although if their mothers are short on vitamin D, the milk will be weak in this area.

And if you give milk not from the mother, does the milk from an animal have sufficient vitamin D?

Possibly not if it has been reared indoors – animals need vitamin D as much as we do.

Supplements can help, but the babies should not need them if the mothers can breastfeed. Supplements are an expensive way of doing it – and making money for multinationals. There’s a surprise. The love of money is the root of all kinds of evil, or just plain stupidity.

I do hope you are getting angry, like me.

4. Death ages

You can see from the graphs that deaths in all graphs pick up significantly from around 65-70 years old.  The average age of death is around the late 70’s early 80’s. You can check the data yourself from the ONS statistics if you need to.

Indeed, about 85% were over 65 years old.

5. Previous Conditions

From

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsinvolvingcovid19englandandwales/deathsoccurringinjune2020

‘Of the deaths involving COVID-19 that occurred in England and Wales in March to June 2020, there was at least one pre-existing condition in 91.1% of cases; this is a similar level to that shown in March to May.’

Note at least one pre-existing condition. This presumably is condition known about rather than from autopsy – did any autopsies get carried out on Covid deaths?

From Public Health England (PHE) – Disparities in the risk and outcomes of COVID-19. Data seems to be that from April 2020.

ConditionPercentage of all deaths where condition is mentionedPercentage of COVID-19 deaths where condition is mentioned
Cardiovascular disease44.144.5
Diabetes14.621.1
Hypertensive diseases14.519.6
Chronic Kidney Disease8.510.8
Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease10.611.5
Dementia23.825.7

5. Black African Middle Eastern (BAME) Ethnicity

From

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundupdeathsandhealth/2020-06-26#Ethnic

‘Adding health conditions to the model, the rate of death involving Covid-19 for Black African males is still 2.5 times higher than for those of White background, and 2.1 times higher for Black African females.’

See also Guardian

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/02/covid-19-death-rate-in-england-higher-among-bame-people

There is a link to the Public Health England report in the text – this is the same as under section 5 above.

So BAME disproportionately affected.

This is because they invariably work indoors and need more sunshine than our climate can provide. This is well documented.

Supplements will help, and if your skin colour is dark, and you want to stay in the UK, you will need to take this on board if you wish to be well.

Costs are small, perhaps £50 a year at the moment might suffice. As always check to be sure.

Otherwise you will need to consider relocating to a climate where sunshine levels will be sufficient to generate the vitamin D you need.

7. Care Homes

Care Homes had almost 30, 000 excess deaths according to BBC News page.

See pdf link

I calculate the excess deaths to date weeks 16 to 50, i.e. Week Ending 17/04/2020 to 11/12/2020 is 12,082. So the overall excess deaths is not so great over the year for that period.

To date I have the following chart for Care Homes.

Series 1 in blue the Care Home deaths, less average 5 year all causes deaths.

Series 2 in red the Care Home deaths, less average 5 year all causes deaths         less Covid 19 deaths.

Series 3 in green a line to highlight the base for comparison against average 5 year all causes deaths 16 to week 50.


However, the difference is very marked for the initial lockdown period. As I have said before, indeed to people in May this year, it was the lockdown that caused the problem.

What do you expect if you shove loads of sick people into care homes, and don’t deal properly with their conditions, cause some to despair of seeing loved ones again in this world and therefore die of broken hearts in both the physical and spiritual senses?

8. Summary 

Why the controversy over remedies and the issues at hand with Covid 19? See link below.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(21)00003-6/fulltext

There are serious questions to ask as to who is trying to kid us that there is not a serious issue of vitamin D deficiency. Could it be the big pharmaceutical industries that have vested interests in maintaining an unhealthy population so they can make money from selling drugs?

Do representatives/former employees of these companies dominate the advisory bodies and academic research?

When I worked this out back in May this year I wept. And then I was angry, really angry. I have done what I can, but even up on my Cloud I struggle to get the message across. Many people are just plain thick, and far too many just plain lazy, and won’t double check the information.

Anyway, I have done the statistical analysis for you to examine. Let me know of any errors. I shall be doing more in due course.

And I hope you are angry enough to do something about this. Destroy the beasts (but save the individuals if possible) who have mislead and misinformed us over many years. Governments, Political Parties, NHS, The Civil (or Uncivil) Service, etc, etc. They are our, the public’s servants, not the other way round.

I hope that’s clear.

P.S. If you wish to know more about Covid 19 please see Covid 19 Summary